“The productivity of knowledge has already become the key to productivity, competitive strength and economic achievement. Knowledge has already become the primary industry, the industry that supplies the economy the essential and central resources of production.” – Peter Drucker
The words of John Naisbitt, at the beginning of his book "Megatrends 2020", are like a shocking bolt of lightning in human life, which is why I allow myself to quote them verbatim below:
"The world is in the middle of great transformation – from an industrial era to an information (and Knowledge). However, society’s perception, has not yet made the mental adjustment to the new realities. This is understandable as the transformation is occurring so quickly, aided by modern communication technology. Essentially, there are new sets of realities presenting themselves to businesses. These realities are exemplified by the trends. The business that can adapt to the new circumstances can be successful. Any business unable to adapt runs the risk of servicing a decreasing market, with falling returns. We literally are watching the shaping of a new era and can be part of the formative process"
I Discovered John Naisbitt few years ago when he published his book "Megatrends 2000", in which he proposed 10 megatrends that would change the face of the planet in the coming years; Years later he published a revised version which he called "Megatrends 2010".
In retrospect, I would dare to say, on a personal level, that the accuracy in the fulfillment of these trends was practically 70% fulfilled.
WHAT IS A MEGATREND?
They are large-scale, long-term global transformative forces that have the potential to fundamentally change the way we live, work and interact with the world around us. They are like deep currents that shape the future of society, the economy and the environment.
MAIN FEATURES OF MEGATRENDS
🟢 They have a global impact because they affect people and societies worldwide.
🟡 They are long-term, since they develop over decades, they are not short-term.
🔵 They are transformative, since they generate deep and lasting changes in multiple areas.
🟢 They are interconnected, that is, they influence each other, creating a complex web of changes.
SOME EXAMPLES OF MEGATRENDS
1️⃣ Climate change and resource scarcity, the effects of which can be seen in rising temperatures, increasingly larger hurricanes, and scarcity of water and other natural resources.
2️⃣ Technological advances such as artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, and other emerging technologies that are transforming all aspects of life.
3️⃣ Demographics and social change seen in population ageing, migration, and the evolution of social values.
4️⃣ Globalisation, which implies the growing interconnection of economies and cultures, thus creating new opportunities and challenges.
5️⃣ Urbanisation, evident in the growth of cities and the concentration of the population in urban areas, posing infrastructure and sustainability challenges.
For every Strategic Thinker, from a businessman, through general directors, area directors, managers and even educational entities such as rectors, coordinators, teachers and students, understanding megatrends is crucial to be able to anticipate the future, allowing us to prepare for the changes that are coming and create strategies to mitigate threats and enhance opportunities.
Allow me to tell you, dear reader, that in addition to being a strategic consultant, I am fortunate to teach two courses, one at the Universidad Iberoamericana on "Strategic Thinking" and another at the Business School of the Universidad La Salle on "Market-Oriented Intelligence Systems"; in both subjects, fundamental tools are touched upon to foresee the future and prevent the deterioration of the profitability of companies and their disappearance.
Students are told that there are neither crystal balls nor oracles to predict the future, but there are tools to imagine it.
For reason above mentioned, tools such as the PESTLE Matrix are used, which is an evaluation of external and non-controllable variables such as political, economic, social, technological, ecological and legal aspects. This matrix complements the Megatrends very well and from here students are taught how to derive strategies.
A good PESTLE analysis complemented by the MEGATRENDS allows us to make better decisions (individually or as a team) to identify business, investment, and innovation opportunities and to mitigate potential challenges and risks.
IS A STRATEGIC THINKER A FUTUROLOGIST?
Although strategic thinker and a futurologist are not exactly the same, both roles involve looking ahead and anticipating possible scenarios, but they have different approaches and objectives:
🟢To understand trends, both have a long-term vision analyzing data, information and signals from the present to identify patterns and project possible futures; it seems that both use "Business Intelligence".
🟡 In addition, both use critical thinking to evaluate different scenarios and their possible consequences.
The difference is in the approach:
🔵 The strategic thinker focuses on the future of a specific organization, company or sector, to design strategies that guarantee the strategic objectives and the future of the company.
He uses tools such as PESTEL (already mentioned), the External and Internal Factors Evaluation Matrix, Competitive Analysis and the Balanced Scorecard.
🟢 On the other hand, the futurologist has a broader perspective, analyzing the future of society, technology, the environment and humanity in general, informing society to help it make decisions.
He uses methods such as trend analysis, foresight, the Delphi method and scenario building.
Therefore, I would dare to say that a Strategic Thinker is like a Futurologist focused on a specific context (a company, an organization, a sector), while the Futurologist has a broader vision and cares about the future in general.
Both roles are complementary and necessary in a constantly changing world. Organizations need Strategic Thinkers to navigate the future, and society needs Futurologists to anticipate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
MEGATRENDS 2020
As I mentioned at the beginning of this writing, the words of John Naisbitt, at the beginning of his book "Megatrends 2020", are like a shocking bolt in human life, which is why I now allow myself to give a general outline of these megatrends that will govern the near future of the world:
The Shift from a G-7 World to a G-20 World, refers to the growing economic and political power of emerging economies like China, India, and Brazil, leading to a more multipolar world.
The Rise of the "Free Agent Nation", describes the increasing number of individuals working independently and flexibly, rather than as traditional employees, empowered by technology and globalization.
The Growing Importance of "High Touch" in a "High Tech" World, while technology advances, the need for human interaction, connection, and empathy ("high touch") becomes even more crucial, particularly in fields like healthcare, education, and social work.
The Emergence of "Ecological Capitalism", this megatrend points towards a more sustainable economic model where businesses prioritize environmental responsibility and social impact alongside profit, driven by growing awareness of climate change and resource scarcity.
The Rise of the "Global Citizen", individuals are increasingly identifying as global citizens, with a sense of responsibility to the world beyond their national borders, fueled by globalization, communication technologies, and shared global challenges.
It's important to note that these megatrends are interconnected and influence each other. For example, the rise of the "free agent nation" is facilitated by technology and globalization, while the growing importance of "high touch" is a response to the increasing dominance of technology in our lives.
Finally, these are not all the megatrends identified by John Naisbitt, in the next articles we will reflect on those that are missing.
BRIEF PROFILES
Alvin Toffler (1928-2016)
Key works: "Future Shock" (1970), "The Third Wave" (1980), and "Powershift" (1990).
Main ideas: Analyzed the impact of accelerating technological and social change on society, describing the "waves" of civilization (agricultural, industrial, and informational). Popularized the term "information overload."
John Naisbitt (1929-2021)
Key works: "Megatrends" (1982) and "Megatrends 2000" (1990).
Main ideas: Identified and analyzed the megatrends shaping society, such as globalization, decentralization, and the information boom.
Dr. Michio Kaku is a renowned theoretical physicist, futurist, and popular science communicator. He is a professor of theoretical physics at the City College of New York and the CUNY Graduate Center.
Kaku is a co-founder of string field theory, a branch of string theory, and continues to be a leading voice in exploring the fundamental laws of the universe. He is also a passionate advocate for science education and public understanding of science.
Ray Kurzweil (born 1948):
Key works: "The Age of Spiritual Machines" (1999) and "The Singularity Is Near" (2005).
Main ideas: Advocate of the idea of the "technological singularity," a hypothetical point in the future where artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence. Promoter of nanotechnology, biotechnology, and life extension.
Yuval Noaḥ Harari
Key works: "Sapiens: From Animals to Gods" (2011), "Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow" (2015) and "21 Lessons for the 21st Century" (2018).
Key ideas: Historian and philosopher who explores the past, present and future of humanity. He analyzes the impact of technology, biotechnology and artificial intelligence on society and the individual.
Peter Drucker:
Key contributions: Considered the father of modern management, Drucker emphasized the importance of management by objectives, decentralization, and knowledge management.
Key works: "The Practice of Management" (1954), "The Effective Executive" (1967), "Innovation and Entrepreneurship" (1985).
Michael Porter
Key contributions: Considered the father of modern business strategy, he is recognized for his models of industry analysis (Porter's five forces) and the value chain, as well as his ideas on competitive advantage and differentiation strategy.
Key works: "Competitive Strategy" (1980), "Competitive Advantage" (1985), "On Competition" (1998).
Clayton Christensen:
Key contributions: Known for his theory of "disruptive innovation," which explains how new technologies can transform entire industries and displace leading companies.
Key works: "The Innovator's Dilemma" (1997), "The Innovator's Solution" (2003).
Henry Mintzberg
Key contributions: Questioned traditional views of strategic planning and proposed a more emergent and flexible approach, recognizing the importance of improvisation and adaptation in the strategic process.
Key works: "The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning" (1994), "Strategy Safari" (1998).
Gary Hamel
He is a world-renowned management innovator and a leading thinker on strategy and the future of organizations. He is a Visiting Professor of Strategic and International Management at the London Business School and the director of the Management Lab.
Hamel is a prolific writer and speaker, and his ideas have been featured in numerous publications, including the Harvard Business Review, where he is the most reprinted author in the journal's history. He has also authored several influential books, including "Leading the Revolution," "The Future of Management," and "What Matters Now."
SOURCES:
1) Erdozain, J.C. (2024). Apuntes de Pensamiento Estratégico. inGenius-eaBC
2) Naisbitt, J y Naisbitt, D (2019). Mastering Megatrends: Understanding and Leveraging the Evolving New Worl. Harper Business.
Comments